杀生

Inflation showed its sticky nature in July, rising slightly as increases in services costs offset a decline in the price of goods, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Thursday.

The personal consumption expenditures price index, a metric closely followed by the Federal Reserve, rose 0.2% for the month and 3.3% for the 12-month period. That was in line with estimates.

The core index, stripping out energy and food costs, rose 0.2% and 4.2%, respectively. Last month, the annual rate of increase was 3% and 4.1%.

Other data in the release showed spending and income up.

“Condition of the American consumer remains rock solid,” RSM US LLP Principal & Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas posted on X, formerly Twitter. He noted that spending was up 0.8%, inflation-adjusted spending was up 0.6% and 2.8% on a three-month annualized pace – placing some risk on the company’s 2.1% forecast for gross domestic product growth in the third quarter. He also pointed out that income was up 0.2%, while wages, salaries and compensation were up 0.4%.”

While the PCE number is perhaps higher than the Fed would like, Chairman Jerome Powell said in his recent speech at the central bank’s summer symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, noted that “on a 12-month basis, core PCE inflation peaked at 5.4 percent in February 2022 and declined gradually to 4.3 percent in July.”

But he also cautioned that the path to the Fed’s 2% annual inflation target will require that interest rates remain high for some time to come.

“Turning to the outlook, although further unwinding of pandemic-related distortions should continue to put some downward pressure on inflation, restrictive monetary policy will likely play an increasingly important role,” Powell said. “Getting inflation sustainably back down to 2 percent is expected to require a period of below-trend economic growth as well as some softening in labor market conditions.”

Markets seem unfazed by the messaging. In recent days, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been on an upward run and is positioned to open up 150 points at the opening.

“Headlines touting a soft landing are increasing, the consensus seems to be that a soft landing is the most likely scenario, this seems like a unicorn scenario, but mixed economic data makes predicting a recession difficult,” said Shana Orczyk Sissel, CEO and founder of Banrion Capital Management. “We see clear signs of broad economic weakness, but inflation is falling, employment is strong, and the consumer is spending, so it's hard to really see a recession occurring this year.”

Many economists have pointed out that getting inflation down to the 3% range from the 9% of last summer, while an accomplishment, will prove easier than wringing the last 1% out.

“While signs point to a continued slowdown in inflation over time, certain categories give us pause as we close out 2023 and head into 2024,” said Joe Davis, chief global economist at Vanguard. “The decline in house prices appears to have abated, which means that the contribution from shelter to core inflation next year may stabilize if not increase. Upside inflation risk is also present in healthcare services where insurance prices are expected to rise this October along with a continued upward pressure on labor demand in the sector, thus suggesting higher wage costs.”

“Our baseline trajectory anticipates a gradual decline in the pace of inflation with core PCE staying well above 3% through YE 2023 and remaining slightly above 2% by YE 2024,” Davis added.

中吉乌铁路不是单一的铁路交通线路，在交通互联互通方面具有极大的地缘经济与政治价值，将促进中国与中亚、南亚、西亚、欧洲国际市场的深度融合，成为中国与上合组织覆盖国家在“一带一路”框架下互联互通、互惠互利的标志性项目。不仅有利于完善亚欧大陆整体交通网络，更将为疫情后重启经济、发掘经济潜力创造新机遇。9月15日至16日，上海合作组织成员国元首理事会第二十二次会议将在乌兹别克斯坦撒马尔罕召开。8月2日，乌兹别克斯坦代理外交部部长弗拉基米尔·诺罗夫表示，中吉乌铁路修建协议计划在撒马尔罕峰会期间签署。该协议的签署，无疑将成为本届峰会一大重要成果。中吉乌铁路，对上合组织成员国及其辐射国家发展影响广泛，其不是单一的铁路交通线路，在交通互联互通方面具有极大的地缘经济与政治价值，尤其是在俄乌冲突引发全球及区域地缘政治生变的背景下，对于上合组织覆盖区域的交通网络与体系构建及其外延式发展意义深远。中亚经济发展的新引擎开通中吉乌铁路，将促进中国与中亚、南亚、西亚、欧洲国际市场的深度融合，成为中国与上合组织覆盖国家在“一带一路”框架下互联互通、互惠互利的标志性项目，不仅将构建起新亚欧大陆桥的南部通路、拓宽运输范围，还将改变我国西部地区的交通格局。

二 | 随着共建“一带一路”深入推进，新疆不再是边远地带，而是一个核心区、一个枢纽地带。然而当前，新疆在对外合作与交流方面具有的多元资源潜能尚未完全释放与发挥出来。

三 | 中吉乌铁路修通后，新疆将多出一条陆路国际通道，由原来的1条增为2条，这必将成为未来新疆经济发展和社会建设的新增长极，将扩大新疆乃至整个西部经济版图并加快其各种有效资源潜力对外释放的速度。中吉乌铁路建设，将有利于吉乌两国扩大农产品和矿产品出口，能为两国吸引国际投资创造良好条件，更利于两国撬动多种资源出口创汇。铁路建成投运后，可优化两国境内交通基础设施、提升铁路运力与增加货物吞吐量、推动两国成为铁路运输中转国、快速带动两国运输业发展，可使两国产品更快速地进入阿富汗、巴基斯坦、伊朗与土耳其等周边国家。

四 | 同时，两国也可通过中吉乌铁路运营与维护获取过境收益红利、增加就业岗位。对于双重内陆国乌兹别克斯坦而言，通过中吉乌铁路可以使其货物绕过哈萨克斯坦进入中国，扩展其交通运输网，降低对哈萨克斯坦的过境运输依赖。同时，中吉乌铁路走廊将与外高加索走廊连接，为乌兹别克斯坦提供至欧洲的最短线路。再者，乌国可借力中吉乌铁路构建“生产—物流—货运网点”新型一体化经济走廊。对于铁路极不发达、货物运输完全靠公路的吉尔吉斯斯坦而言，中吉乌铁路的开通必将为其大大节省运输时间与成本。

五 | 据吉国经济专家测算，中吉乌铁路项目落成后，其年货运量预计可达1300万吨，其中20%为吉国境内货运量，80%为过境吉国货运量，吉国仅靠过境运输一年就可以获利2亿美元。辐射周边的新纽带中吉乌铁路建设不仅惠及中国、吉尔吉斯斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦三国，对周边国家也具有极其重要的意义。土库曼斯坦对丝绸之路的形成与发展作出过重要贡献，被誉为“人间七条路的十字路口”。自独立以来，土库曼斯坦在中亚国家中率先提出恢复古丝绸之路倡议，30年来一直努力践行海陆空交通运输一体化战略，修建了多条国内与国际铁路。此外，还耗巨资修建了6座机场、2座跨阿姆河大桥、1条高速公路及土库曼巴希国际海港等。

六 | 目前，土库曼斯坦在推进“青金石”（“阿富汗—土库曼斯坦—阿塞拜疆—格鲁吉亚—土耳其”）交通走廊、“中亚—近东”（“乌兹别克斯坦—土库曼斯坦—伊朗—阿曼—卡塔尔”）交通走廊、“里海—黑海”（“土库曼斯坦—阿塞拜疆—格鲁吉亚—罗马尼亚”）交通走廊建设。从某种意义上说，土库曼斯坦是中亚国家中修建现代交通基础设施最多、最好的国家，但土国受限周边交通环境，其现代化交通运输体系的效能还尚未完全发挥出来，当前只有“哈—土—伊”南北国际铁路、土库曼巴希港发挥了一定潜能。中吉乌铁路的开通，能使土库曼斯坦联通中国的铁路由1条增为2条，能使土通过中国连接亚太地区，将让土真正纳入欧亚大陆的“一路一区”（“丝绸之路”与“环里海地区”）交通网络，土库曼斯坦的交通运输潜能将得到全面释放。

七 | 当下，土耳其推进的国家交通战略主要以里海“中间走廊”为依托，意在连接格鲁吉亚和阿塞拜疆，再经里海区域哈萨克斯坦或土库曼斯坦两国海港，进入中亚、阿富汗以及巴基斯坦，最终向东抵达中国，以进一步完善亚欧大陆交通网构建，同时谋求最大化地缘政治利益。

八 | “中间走廊”与“一带一路”交通线路存在一定的重合，中亚区域是二者战略对接的重点。“中间走廊”在中亚地区分为北、中、南3条线路，其中正在运营的北、中两条线路只经过哈萨克斯坦，而经过乌兹别克斯坦与土库曼斯坦的南线尚未被激活。同时，俄乌冲突与哈萨克斯坦一月事件的外溢影响，已开始波及到了“中间走廊”北、中两条线路战略安全。中吉乌铁路的开通，可加速“中间走廊”南线在乌土两国境内的贯通，更加深化“一带一路”交通线路与土耳其“中间走廊”的紧密对接。“南—北”走廊建设的驱动器“南—北”走廊构想于1993年被提出。2000年9月，俄罗斯、伊朗和印度就其签署构建协议，随后阿塞拜疆、哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦、土耳其等14国先后加入。“南—北”走廊从提出到构建，横跨两个世纪，因受多种因素影响构建动力不足，进展不大。俄乌冲突爆发后，美欧对俄实施了最严厉的制裁，俄通往欧洲的交通运输线路严重受阻，俄加快了“南—北”交通走廊建设推进速度。2022年7月份，俄总统普京访问伊朗，明确表态俄方将协助伊方修建“南—北”走廊上的“拉什特（伊朗）—阿斯塔拉（阿塞拜疆）”铁路，其能将俄、阿、伊、印四国铁路接成网络，“南—北”走廊再次成为国际交通运输领域的焦点议题。“南—北”走廊作为经向运输通道，单凭俄、伊、印等国建设与运作，其辐射作用等难以完全发挥。中吉乌铁路的开通，能在纬向上为“南—北”走廊增加多个出入口、拓展其腹地范围，势必加速驱动“南—北”走廊建设进程。总之，中吉乌铁路建设协议的签署，再次彰显了上合组织“互信、互利、平等、协商、尊重多样文明、谋求共同发展”的上海精神，将有利于亚欧大陆整体交通网络完善，为疫情后重启经济、发掘经济潜力创造新机遇，更有利于上合组织成员国及关联国家共同“反抗不公正国际规则挤压”，共建共享安全格局。（本文来源：经济日报 作者：兰州大学土库曼斯坦研究中心 王四海 魏 锦）